New broker poll suggests an easy win for the Conservatives – But 50% now have a lower opinion of Theresa May

More than two thirds of brokers will be backing the Conservative Party on Thursday with 71% hoping to see Theresa May’s ‘Strong and Stable’ government in charge for at least the next five years as well as steering the UK through Brexit.

Regardless of their own voting intention, 9 out of 10 brokers polled expect the Conservative Party to be in government on June 9th.

The survey, carried out by United Trust Bank from the 2nd to the 6th of June, polled intermediaries from the fields of property and asset finance on their voting intentions and their views on how the main party leaders have performed during the election campaign.

How will you be voting on Thursday?


Conservative Party 71%
Labour Party 14%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Scottish National Party 1%
Other 2%
Don’t know – 7% 7%


91% of brokers expect the Conservative party to be in government on the 9th of June. However, more than three quarters (76%) predict that it will be with a smaller majority than the polls suggested when the snap election was called.

Furthermore 80% of brokers have not been swayed from their original voting intentions since the start of the election campaigns, but 16% said that they would be voting differently on Thursday from how they thought they would vote when campaigning began. The remaining 4% said that they didn’t know how they’d be voting at the start of the campaigning and they still don’t know now.

Although the overall response was overwhelmingly in favour of a victory for the blues, Theresa May’s personal campaign performance has disappointed half of brokers with 50% indicating that their opinion of the Conservative Leader has declined since the election was announced. The worst performance of all four main party leaders.

Jeremy Corbyn’s personal rating has seen the biggest positive change of the four main party leaders with 30% of brokers indicating that their opinion of him has improved during the campaign

% of brokers whose opinions of the party leaders has improved during this election campaign:


Jeremy Corbyn – Labour Party 30%
Theresa May – Conservative Party 19%
Tim Farron – Liberal Democrat 14%
Nicola Sturgeon – Scottish National Party 3%


% of brokers whose opinions of the party leaders has declined during this election campaign:


Theresa May – Conservative Party 50%
Nicola Sturgeon – Scottish National Party 37%
Jeremy Corbyn – Labour Party 27%
Tim Farron – Liberal Democrat 26%


Harley Kagan, Group Managing Director of United Trust Bank, commented:


“This has been one of the most interesting election campaigns in decades and it’s also one of the most important. With Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party offering a radical alternative to the incumbent Conservatives the electorate have a clear choice to make on Thursday. Momentum has certainly been with Labour and many polls now put just a few points between them. However, to win a UK election you have to win seats and although Jeremy Corbyn may have seen a surge of support in traditional Labour strongholds there are still doubts about him being able to win over voters in the swing constituencies.

“Perhaps the biggest question mark now hangs over Theresa May. She will almost certainly win with a smaller majority than the media predicted back in April and her future as PM may well be decided by the size of the majority the Conservatives can garner on Thursday rather than just winning outright.

“Regardless of who presides over Number 10 at the end of the week, Britain’s businesses will still have opportunities to invest and grow and housebuilders will still want to help tackle our housing shortage. ‘Strong and Stable government’ has already become a soundbite of this election for all the wrong reasons. There’s nothing wrong with strength and stability if you deliver on that promise and UTB is committed to remaining a strong and stable lender whatever the future brings.”